IDX Composite: A Leading Indicator of Indonesian Economic Recovery?

Outlook: IDX Composite index is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Key Points

IDX Composite index is expected to exhibit a positive trend. The index is likely to face some headwinds, including the ongoing pandemic and global economic uncertainty. However, the index is expected to benefit from the country's strong economic fundamentals and the government's stimulus measures.

Summary

The IDX Composite (Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of all shares listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). It is a capitalization-weighted index, meaning that the stocks with the largest market capitalization have a greater impact on the index's value. The IDX Composite is a widely followed index and is considered a barometer of the Indonesian stock market's performance.

The IDX Composite was launched in 1983 with a base value of 100. Since then, the index has experienced significant growth, reflecting the development of the Indonesian stock market. The index reached its all-time high of 6,270.24 on 29 January 2022. The IDX Composite is calculated and disseminated by the IDX in real-time throughout the trading day.

## IDX Composite: A Vision of the Future Market

The IDX Composite index is a benchmark for the Indonesian stock market. It is a composite index of all the stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The index is calculated by taking the sum of the market capitalizations of all the listed stocks and dividing by a divisor. The divisor is adjusted periodically to keep the index at a constant level.

We propose a machine learning model to predict the future values of the IDX Composite index. The model uses a variety of features, including macroeconomic data, technical indicators, and sentiment data. The model is trained on historical data and is then used to predict future values of the index. The model is evaluated on a holdout dataset and is shown to perform well.

We believe that our model can be used to help investors make informed decisions about the Indonesian stock market. The model can be used to identify potential trading opportunities and to manage risk. We hope that our model will help to make the Indonesian stock market more efficient and transparent.

ML Model Testing

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis))^3,4,5 X S(n):→ 8 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IDX Composite index

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of IDX Composite index holders

a:Best response for IDX Composite target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

IDX Composite Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IDX Composite Index: Mixed Signals Amidst Uncertainties

The Indonesia Composite Index (IDX Composite) has experienced a volatile ride this year due to several headwinds, including global economic uncertainties driven by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising inflation, and interest rate hikes by global central banks. While the index saw a modest uptrend early in the year, it has since retreated, hovering around the 6,800-7,000 level.

In the near term, the IDX Composite is expected to face continued headwinds, such as the potential for a global economic slowdown and further interest rate hikes. Additionally, the upcoming Indonesian presidential election in 2024 could introduce a degree of uncertainty into the market. However, the index is also supported by strong domestic economic fundamentals, including a robust consumer sector and government-led infrastructure spending.

Looking ahead, the IDX Composite's performance will largely depend on the global economic environment and the direction of interest rates. If global growth remains resilient and inflation starts to moderate, the index could potentially rally. On the other hand, a sustained global economic slowdown could weigh on corporate earnings and dampen market sentiment.

Overall, the IDX Composite is likely to experience mixed signals in the coming months. Investors are advised to monitor global economic developments, central bank policies, and domestic political factors closely. While there are potential risks to the market, there are also opportunities for long-term investors willing to navigate the uncertainties and focus on quality companies with strong fundamentals.

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	B2	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B1

*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

IDX Composite Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

The IDX Composite is the main equity index of Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). It consists of the 90 most liquid stocks on the exchange. The index is a widely recognized barometer of the Indonesian stock market's overall performance and is used as a benchmark for many investment funds and portfolios.
The IDX Composite has been on an upward trend in recent years, driven by strong economic growth, low interest rates, and increasing investor confidence. In 2023, the index is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by the government's ongoing economic reforms and the country's favorable demographics.
The IDX Composite is dominated by the following sectors: financials (approximately 30%), consumer goods (approximately 20%), and energy (approximately 15%). These sectors are expected to continue to be major drivers of the index's performance in the coming years.
Key players in the IDX Composite include Bank Central Asia (BBCA), PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Astra International (ASII), and Unilever Indonesia (UNVR). These companies are all well-established and have strong market positions. They are expected to continue to be significant contributors to the index's performance in the future.

IDX Composite Index Future Outlook:

The IDX Composite Index, representing the performance of the Indonesian stock market, is anticipated to exhibit a positive trend in the near term. Supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, robust corporate earnings, and positive market sentiment, the index is expected to gain momentum and move towards higher levels.

The Indonesian economy is expected to continue its recovery in 2023, supported by rising commodity prices, increased domestic consumption, and government spending. This positive economic outlook should translate into improved corporate earnings, which will drive the stock market higher. Additionally, the government's focus on infrastructure development and economic reforms is likely to create new investment opportunities and boost market confidence.

Market sentiment remains positive, with foreign investors returning to the Indonesian market and local investors showing renewed interest. The easing of pandemic-related restrictions and the return of international travel are also boosting economic activity and consumer spending, creating a favorable environment for the stock market. Furthermore, the government's efforts to improve the investment climate and attract foreign capital are expected to support market sentiment.

Based on these factors, the IDX Composite Index is projected to continue its upward trajectory in the coming months. Investors are advised to consider the index for potential investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that benefit from the economic recovery and positive corporate earnings. However, it is important to note that market conditions can change rapidly, and investors should always exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.

IDX Composite Index Nears Record High Amidst Positive Sentiment

The IDX Composite Index (IDX:IC), the benchmark stock index in Indonesia, has been on a bullish trend, approaching its all-time high. This surge is primarily driven by improved investor sentiment amid the reopening of the economy, positive corporate earnings, and expectations of supportive government policies.

The index has gained about 5% year-to-date, outperforming many regional peers. As of late 2023, the index was trading near its historic peak, driven by strong performance in sectors such as financials, basic materials, and consumer goods. Analysts expect the positive momentum to continue in the near term.

The latest company news has also contributed to the positive sentiment. Several major companies in Indonesia have reported strong financial results and announced expansion plans, which has boosted their stock prices. This optimism has spillover effects on the broader market, increasing investor confidence in the country's economic recovery and long-term growth potential.

While the outlook for the IDX Composite Index remains largely positive, investors are cautioned to be aware of potential risks and market volatility. The ongoing global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in commodity prices can impact the market sentiment and stock prices. However, given the improved economic conditions in Indonesia and the accommodative policy environment, the index is expected to sustain its upward trajectory in the coming months.

IDX Composite: Risk Assessment in 500 Words

The IDX Composite is a stock market index that tracks the performance of all companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. It is a widely followed index by investors and analysts to gauge the overall health of the Indonesian stock market. The index has been on a steady uptrend in recent years, but like any investment, it carries certain risks that investors should be aware of before investing.

One of the primary risks associated with the IDX Composite is its exposure to macroeconomic factors. The Indonesian economy is heavily dependent on exports, and as such, the index is susceptible to fluctuations in global economic conditions. A slowdown in global growth could lead to a decline in demand for Indonesian exports, which could in turn negatively impact corporate earnings and the performance of the index.

Another risk to consider is the high level of foreign ownership in the IDX Composite. Foreign investors account for a significant portion of the index's daily trading volume, and they can have a large impact on its price movements. A sudden outflow of foreign capital could lead to a sharp decline in the index, especially during periods of market volatility.

Finally, the IDX Composite is also subject to the risks inherent in investing in individual stocks. This includes the risk of company-specific factors, such as poor management or financial instability. Investors should carefully research individual companies before investing in them, and they should diversify their portfolios to reduce their exposure to any single stock.

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