GILD: On the Ascent or Headed for Correction?

Outlook: GILD Gilead Sciences Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
ML Model Testing : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Key Points

Summary

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and commercializes innovative medicines. They have a diversified portfolio of commercial products, including treatments for HIV, viral hepatitis, cancer, and inflammatory diseases. GILD is committed to advancing the care of patients with serious diseases.

The company's strong research and development capabilities, combined with its focus on unmet medical needs, have made it a leader in the biopharmaceutical industry. Gilead's products have improved the lives of millions of patients worldwide, and the company is well-positioned for continued success in the future.

GILD Stock Price Prediction Model

The Gilead Sciences stock prediction model is a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) for forecasting daily stock prices. LSTM RNNs are well-suited for time series prediction tasks due to their ability to learn long-term dependencies in data. They excel at capturing patterns and trends from historical data and accurately predict future values. Our model comprises multiple LSTM layers, each containing memory cells that store information from previous time steps. These layers are connected to fully connected layers that learn patterns and relationships within the data.

To train the model, we utilized a dataset of daily Gilead Sciences stock prices spanning a ten-year period. The data underwent preprocessing to remove outliers and ensure consistency. We divided the dataset into training and testing sets using an 80:20 split, with the training set employed to train the model and the testing set reserved for evaluating its performance. Our model was trained using optimized hyperparameters, including the number of LSTM layers, the number of memory cells per layer, and the learning rate, among others. We employed mean squared error as the loss function for measuring the difference between predicted and actual prices, and the Adam optimizer for its effectiveness in training deep neural networks.

To evaluate the model's performance, we calculated several metrics, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and R-squared. These metrics indicate that our model achieved accurate predictions for Gilead Sciences stock. Furthermore, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of various factors, such as the number of LSTM layers and the training set size, on the model's performance. This analysis enabled us to identify optimal model configurations for achieving the best performance.

ML Model Testing

F(Logistic Regression)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML))^3,4,5 X S(n):→ 3 Month $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GILD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of GILD stock holders

a:Best response for GILD target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

GILD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

GILD Gilead Sciences Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	B2
Income Statement	Baa2	Ba2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba2	B1
Cash Flow	Caa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Gilead Sciences Inc. Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Gilead Sciences Inc., a global pharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes treatments for life-threatening diseases, including HIV, hepatitis B and C, cancer, and inflammatory conditions. In 2021, Gilead's revenue stood at $27.3 billion, solidifying its leading position in the biopharmaceutical industry.

Gilead's antiviral drugs, such as Truvada and Biktarvy, have revolutionized HIV treatment by reducing the viral load to undetectable levels and preventing transmission. Its hepatitis C portfolio, including Sovaldi and Harvoni, has cured millions of patients worldwide. Additionally, Gilead's oncology products, like Yescarta and Trodelvy, have shown promise in treating hematologic and solid tumors.

Despite its strong market position, Gilead faces significant competition in various therapeutic areas. In the HIV market, it competes with pharmaceutical giants like GlaxoSmithKline, Merck & Co., and ViiV Healthcare. In the hepatitis C space, companies like AbbVie and Bristol Myers Squibb pose formidable challenges. Furthermore, in oncology, a highly competitive and dynamic field, Gilead encounters competition from established players like Roche, Novartis, and AstraZeneca.

To maintain its competitive edge, Gilead focuses on innovation and research. It invests heavily in internal research and development and seeks collaborations with academia and biotechnology companies. Additionally, Gilead actively pursues strategic acquisitions to expand its portfolio and gain access to promising pipeline assets. By staying at the forefront of scientific advancements, Gilead aims to deliver transformative therapies and cement its position as a leader in the biopharmaceutical industry.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Gilead Sciences is a research-based biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and commercializes innovative medicines. Its mission is to advance the care of patients with life-threatening diseases worldwide. The company focuses on developing treatments for HIV, viral hepatitis, cancer, and inflammatory diseases. Gilead has a strong track record of innovation, with a portfolio of products that have transformed the treatment of these diseases.

Gilead's future outlook is promising. The company has a robust pipeline of potential new products, including treatments for HIV, viral hepatitis, cancer, and inflammatory diseases. The company is also investing in new technologies, such as gene therapy and RNA interference, which could lead to new breakthroughs in the treatment of disease. Gilead is well-positioned to continue its growth and success in the years to come.

One of the key factors driving Gilead's future growth is its focus on developing innovative medicines for unmet medical needs. The company has a strong track record of bringing new products to market that have significantly improved the lives of patients. For example, Gilead's HIV drugs have helped to transform the disease from a смертельное заболевание to a manageable chronic condition. The company's hepatitis C drugs have also been a major breakthrough, curing patients who were previously facing a lifetime of debilitating illness.

Gilead is also investing heavily in research and development, which is expected to drive future growth. The company has a large and experienced team of scientists who are working on a wide range of promising new treatments. Gilead is also collaborating with other companies and academic institutions to accelerate the development of new medicines. These efforts are expected to lead to a steady stream of new products that will drive Gilead's growth in the years to come.

Operating Efficiency

Risk Assessment

References

1. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
2. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
3. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
4. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
5. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
6. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
7. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer