Where Will MMP Stock Be in 4 Weeks?

Outlook: Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Lasso Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MMP stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Trading Signals
2. Reaction Function
3. What is a prediction confidence?

MMP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MMP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MMP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Statistical Inference (ML)

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.

Lasso Regression

Lasso regression, also known as L1 regularization, is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates and to induce sparsity in the model. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "lasso" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "lasso constant". Lasso regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression, as well as the problem of overfitting. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Overfitting occurs when a model is too closely fit to the training data, and as a result, it does not generalize well to new data.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MMP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MMP Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based MMP Stock Prediction Model

1. An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
2. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
3. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
4. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

MMP Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	B3
Income Statement	B3	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	C
Leverage Ratios	Ba3	B2
Cash Flow	Ba1	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B3 estimated rating. Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MMP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 794 signals.

References

1. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
2. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
3. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
4. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
5. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
6. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
7. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for MMP stock?
A: MMP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is MMP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MMP Stock.
Q: Is Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. Limited Partnership is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MMP stock?
A: The consensus rating for MMP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for MMP stock?
A: The prediction period for MMP is 4 Weeks