LON:SDV Stock: A Sinking Ship?

Outlook: CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SDV stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Key Points

1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
2. Market Outlook
3. Investment Risk

LON:SDV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:SDV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:SDV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.

Polynomial Regression

Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:SDV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:SDV CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) based LON:SDV Stock Prediction Model

1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.
2. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.
3. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.
4. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

LON:SDV CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B2
Income Statement	Caa2	C
Balance Sheet	Ba1	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	C	Caa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating. CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SDV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 695 signals.

References

1. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
2. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
3. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
4. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
5. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
6. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
7. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:SDV stock?
A: LON:SDV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is LON:SDV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend LON:SDV Stock.
Q: Is CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CHELVERTON UK DIVIDEND TRUST PLC is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:SDV stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:SDV is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:SDV stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:SDV is 16 Weeks