Should You Buy Now or Wait? ICLK Stock Forecast

Outlook: iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 08 Jun 2023 for 1 Year
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ICLK stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for speculative sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of speculative sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of people who are speculating about the future value of an asset, such as a stock or a cryptocurrency. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
2. Why do we need predictive models?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

ICLK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ICLK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ICLK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for speculative sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of speculative sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of people who are speculating about the future value of an asset, such as a stock or a cryptocurrency. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.

In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ICLK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 1 Year

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ICLK iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 08 Jun 2023 for 1 Year

According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares

1. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
2. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
3. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
4. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ICLK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

ICLK iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B2	B3
Balance Sheet	Baa2	B2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	C	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 820 signals.

References

1. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
2. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
3. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
4. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
5. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
6. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. How is the price of gold determined? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
7. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ICLK stock?
A: ICLK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is ICLK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ICLK Stock.
Q: Is iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited American Depositary Shares is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ICLK stock?
A: The consensus rating for ICLK is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ICLK stock?
A: The prediction period for ICLK is 1 Year