MYGN Stock: A High-Risk, High-Reward Investment

Outlook: Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 22 Jun 2023 for 6 Month
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Summary

Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MYGN stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
2. Investment Risk
3. Is now good time to invest?

MYGN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MYGN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MYGN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.

Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MYGN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 6 Month

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MYGN Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 22 Jun 2023 for 6 Month

According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock

1. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.
2. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
3. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
4. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating. Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MYGN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

MYGN Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Income Statement	Baa2	Caa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	B3
Leverage Ratios	C	Baa2
Cash Flow	B3	Ba1
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba3	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 510 signals.

References

1. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is FFBC Stock Buy or Sell?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
3. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
4. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
6. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
7. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for MYGN stock?
A: MYGN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is MYGN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MYGN Stock.
Q: Is Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Myriad Genetics Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MYGN stock?
A: The consensus rating for MYGN is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MYGN stock?
A: The prediction period for MYGN is 6 Month