Is LON:TRI Stock Expected to Go Up?

Outlook: TRIFAST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 10 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

TRIFAST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:TRI stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. Investment Risk

LON:TRI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider TRIFAST PLC Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:TRI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:TRI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.

Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:TRI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 8 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:TRI TRIFAST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for TRIFAST PLC

1. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
2. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.
3. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.
4. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

TRIFAST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. TRIFAST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:TRI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

LON:TRI TRIFAST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B3	B3
Balance Sheet	Caa2	C
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	B3
Cash Flow	B3	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 873 signals.

References

1. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
2. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
3. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
4. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:TRI stock?
A: LON:TRI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:TRI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRI Stock.
Q: Is TRIFAST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TRIFAST PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:TRI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:TRI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:TRI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:TRI is 8 Weeks