C^N Stock: A Bright Investment or a Bubble Waiting to Burst?

Outlook: Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 13 Jun 2023 for 6 Month
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the C^N stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Can machine learning predict?
2. Why do we need predictive models?
3. How do you pick a stock?

C^N Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of C^N stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of C^N stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.

Stepwise Regression

Stepwise regression is a method of variable selection in which variables are added or removed from a model one at a time, based on their statistical significance. There are two main types of stepwise regression: forward selection and backward elimination. In forward selection, variables are added to the model one at a time, starting with the variable with the highest F-statistic. The F-statistic is a measure of how much improvement in the model is gained by adding the variable. Variables are added to the model until no variable adds a statistically significant improvement to the model.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

C^N Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 6 Month

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: C^N Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS)
Time series to forecast n: 13 Jun 2023 for 6 Month

According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS)

1. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods only if it is possible to do so without the use of hindsight. If an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all the requirements in this Standard for the affected financial instruments. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
2. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.
3. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
4. The accounting for the forward element of forward contracts in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16 applies only to the extent that the forward element relates to the hedged item (aligned forward element). The forward element of a forward contract relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the forward contract (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the forward contract and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned forward element, ie how much of the forward element included in the forward contract (actual forward element) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16). An entity determines the aligned forward element using the valuation of the forward contract that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the C^N stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

C^N Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS) Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	B3
Leverage Ratios	B2	C
Cash Flow	Caa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 466 signals.

References

1. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
2. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
3. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
4. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
5. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
6. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
7. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for C^N stock?
A: C^N stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is C^N stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell C^N Stock.
Q: Is Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Citigroup Capital XIII 7.875% Fixed rate Floating Rate trust Preferred Securities (TruPS) is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of C^N stock?
A: The consensus rating for C^N is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for C^N stock?
A: The prediction period for C^N is 6 Month