AAL American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 29 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AAL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Is Target price a good indicator?
3. What is prediction model?

AAL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of AAL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AAL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AAL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AAL American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 29 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock

1. For the purpose of this Standard, reasonable and supportable information is that which is reasonably available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort, including information about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions. Information that is available for financial reporting purposes is considered to be available without undue cost or effort.
2. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
3. If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).
4. A contractually specified inflation risk component of the cash flows of a recognised inflation-linked bond (assuming that there is no requirement to account for an embedded derivative separately) is separately identifiable and reliably measurable, as long as other cash flows of the instrument are not affected by the inflation risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AAL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

AAL American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	B3	B2
Cash Flow	Ba2	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba3	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 666 signals.

References

1. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
2. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
3. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
4. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
5. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
6. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
7. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AAL stock?
A: AAL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is AAL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes AAL Stock.
Q: Is American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AAL stock?
A: The consensus rating for AAL is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for AAL stock?
A: The prediction period for AAL is (n+3 month)