VRSK Target Price Forecast

This paper tries to address the problem of stock market prediction leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) strategies. The stock market prediction can be modeled based on two principal analyses called technical and fundamental. In the technical analysis approach, the regression machine learning (ML) algorithms are employed to predict the stock price trend at the end of a business day based on the historical price data. In contrast, in the fundamental analysis, the classification ML algorithms are applied to classify the public sentiment based on news and social media. We evaluate Verisk prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VRSK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VRSK stock.

Keywords: VRSK, Verisk, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
3. Investment Risk

VRSK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The categorization of high dimensional data present a fascinating challenge to machine learning models as frequent number of highly correlated dimensions or attributes can affect the accuracy of classification model. In this paper, the problem of high dimensionality of stock exchange is investigated to predict the market trends by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) with linear regression. PCA can help to improve the predictive performance of machine learning methods while reducing the redundancy among the data. We consider Verisk Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of VRSK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VRSK stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VRSK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VRSK Verisk
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VRSK stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Verisk assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VRSK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VRSK stock.

Financial State Forecast for VRSK Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Baa2
Operational Risk	78	81
Market Risk	66	85
Technical Analysis	36	67
Fundamental Analysis	88	63
Risk Unsystematic	46	89

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 771 signals.

References

1. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
2. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
3. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
4. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
5. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
6. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
7. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for VRSK stock?
A: VRSK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is VRSK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VRSK Stock.
Q: Is Verisk stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Verisk is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VRSK stock?
A: The consensus rating for VRSK is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for VRSK stock?
A: The prediction period for VRSK is (n+4 weeks)