Is now good time to invest? (LON:RKT Stock Forecast)

Prediction of the Stock Market is a challenging task in predicting the stock prices in the future. Due to the fluctuating nature of the stock, the stock market is too difficult to predict. Stock prices are constantly changing every day. Estimating of the stock market has a high demand for stock customers. Applying all extracted rules at any time is a major challenge to estimate the future stock price with high accuracy. The latest prediction techniques adopted for the stock market such as Artificial Neural Network, Neuro-Fuzzy System, Time Series Linear Models (TSLM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). We evaluate RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP PLC prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:RKT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:RKT stock.

Keywords: LON:RKT, RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Outlook
2. Can machine learning predict?
3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

LON:RKT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market forecasting is considered to be a challenging topic among time series forecasting. This study proposes a novel two-stage ensemble machine learning model named SVR-ENANFIS for stock price prediction by combining features of support vector regression (SVR) and ensemble adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ENANFIS). We consider RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:RKT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:RKT stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:RKT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:RKT RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 13 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:RKT stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:RKT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:RKT stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:RKT Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba3
Operational Risk	90	67
Market Risk	66	55
Technical Analysis	85	63
Fundamental Analysis	50	89
Risk Unsystematic	60	32

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 829 signals.

References

1. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
2. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
3. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
4. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
5. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
6. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:RKT stock?
A: LON:RKT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:RKT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:RKT Stock.
Q: Is RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:RKT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:RKT is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:RKT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:RKT is (n+8 weeks)