ES Stock Price Prediction

The stock market prediction has attracted much attention from academia as well as business. Due to the non-linear, volatile and complex nature of the market, it is quite difficult to predict. As the stock markets grow bigger, more investors pay attention to develop a systematic approach to predict the stock market. We evaluate Eversource prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ES stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ES stock.

Keywords: ES, Eversource, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Outlook
2. Probability Distribution
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

ES Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In this paper we investigate ways to use prior knowledge and neural networks to improve multivariate prediction ability. Daily stock prices are predicted as a complicated real-world problem, taking non-numerical factors such as political and international events are into account. We have studied types of prior knowledge which are difficult to insert into initial network structures or to represent in the form of error measurements. We consider Eversource Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ES stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ES stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ES Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ES Eversource
Time series to forecast n: 16 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ES stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Eversource assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ES stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ES stock.

Financial State Forecast for ES Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B1
Operational Risk	44	38
Market Risk	38	49
Technical Analysis	67	56
Fundamental Analysis	61	88
Risk Unsystematic	55	55

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 688 signals.

References

1. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
2. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
3. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
4. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
5. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
6. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
7. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ES stock?
A: ES stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is ES stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ES Stock.
Q: Is Eversource stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eversource is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ES stock?
A: The consensus rating for ES is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for ES stock?
A: The prediction period for ES is (n+6 month)