Can stock prices be predicted? (KMB Stock Forecast)

Stock market is basically nonlinear in nature and the research on stock market is one of the most important issues in recent years. People invest in stock market based on some prediction. For predict, the stock market prices people search such methods and tools which will increase their profits, while minimize their risks. Prediction plays a very important role in stock market business which is very complicated and challenging process. We evaluate Kimberly-Clark prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KMB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KMB stock.

Keywords: KMB, Kimberly-Clark, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
2. What is prediction model?
3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

KMB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of the trend of the stock market is very crucial. If someone has robust forecasting tools, then he/she will increase the return on investment and can get rich easily and quickly. Because there are a lot of factors that can influence the stock market, the stock forecasting problem has always been very complicated. Support Vector Regression is a tool from machine learning that can build a regression model on the historical time series data in the purpose of predicting the future trend of the stock price. We consider Kimberly-Clark Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of KMB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KMB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

KMB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: KMB Kimberly-Clark
Time series to forecast n: 22 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KMB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Kimberly-Clark assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KMB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KMB stock.

Financial State Forecast for KMB Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba1
Operational Risk	86	79
Market Risk	79	55
Technical Analysis	62	64
Fundamental Analysis	64	79
Risk Unsystematic	49	83

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 522 signals.

References

1. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
2. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
3. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
4. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
5. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
6. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
7. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for KMB stock?
A: KMB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is KMB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KMB Stock.
Q: Is Kimberly-Clark stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Kimberly-Clark is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of KMB stock?
A: The consensus rating for KMB is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for KMB stock?
A: The prediction period for KMB is (n+3 month)