Can neural networks predict stock market? (SAIL Stock Forecast)

The classical linear multi-factor stock selection model is widely used for long-term stock price trend prediction. However, the stock market is chaotic, complex, and dynamic, for which reasons the linear model assumption may be unreasonable, and it is more meaningful to construct a better-integrated stock selection model based on different feature selection and nonlinear stock price trend prediction methods. We evaluate SailPoint Technologies prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SAIL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SAIL stock.

Keywords: SAIL, SailPoint Technologies, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Game Theory
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

SAIL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

It has never been easy to invest in a set of assets, the abnormally of financial market does not allow simple models to predict future asset values with higher accuracy. Machine learning, which consist of making computers perform tasks that normally requiring human intelligence is currently the dominant trend in scientific research. This article aims to build a model using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and especially Long-Short Term Memory model (LSTM) to predict future stock market values. We consider SailPoint Technologies Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of SAIL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SAIL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SAIL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SAIL SailPoint Technologies
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SAIL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

SailPoint Technologies assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SAIL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SAIL stock.

Financial State Forecast for SAIL Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B1
Operational Risk	64	38
Market Risk	67	36
Technical Analysis	84	72
Fundamental Analysis	57	66
Risk Unsystematic	59	80

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 823 signals.

References

1. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
2. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
3. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
4. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
5. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
7. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SAIL stock?
A: SAIL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is SAIL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SAIL Stock.
Q: Is SailPoint Technologies stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SailPoint Technologies is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SAIL stock?
A: The consensus rating for SAIL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SAIL stock?
A: The prediction period for SAIL is (n+8 weeks)