How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (MMM Stock Forecast)

In modern financial market, the most crucial problem is to find essential approach to outline and visualizing the predictions in stock-markets to be made by individuals in order to attain maximum profit by investments. The stock market is a transformative, non-straight dynamical and complex system. Long term investment is one of the major investment decisions. Though, evaluating shares and calculating elementary values for companies for long term investment is difficult. In this paper we are going to present comparison of machine learning aided algorithms to evaluate the stock prices in the future to analyze market behaviour. We evaluate 3M prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MMM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MMM stock.

Keywords: MMM, 3M, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Is now good time to invest?
2. Operational Risk
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

MMM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently. We consider 3M Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of MMM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MMM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MMM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MMM 3M
Time series to forecast n: 10 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MMM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

3M assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MMM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MMM stock.

Financial State Forecast for MMM Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Ba2
Operational Risk	64	85
Market Risk	32	75
Technical Analysis	32	64
Fundamental Analysis	71	60
Risk Unsystematic	54	52

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 545 signals.

References

1. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
2. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
3. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
4. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
5. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
6. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
7. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for MMM stock?
A: MMM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is MMM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MMM Stock.
Q: Is 3M stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for 3M is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MMM stock?
A: The consensus rating for MMM is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MMM stock?
A: The prediction period for MMM is (n+1 year)