Does algo trading work? (EQR Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Equity Residential prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EQR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EQR stock.

Keywords: EQR, Equity Residential, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Trust metric by Neural Network
2. What is a prediction confidence?
3. Can statistics predict the future?

EQR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Equity Residential Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of EQR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EQR stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EQR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EQR Equity Residential
Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EQR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Equity Residential assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EQR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EQR stock.

Financial State Forecast for EQR Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba2
Operational Risk	58	48
Market Risk	80	60
Technical Analysis	51	66
Fundamental Analysis	41	88
Risk Unsystematic	37	81

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 813 signals.

References

1. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
2. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
3. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
4. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
5. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
6. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
7. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for EQR stock?
A: EQR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is EQR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EQR Stock.
Q: Is Equity Residential stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Equity Residential is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EQR stock?
A: The consensus rating for EQR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for EQR stock?
A: The prediction period for EQR is (n+1 year)