When should you buy or sell a stock? (PENN Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Penn National Gaming prediction models with Money Flow Index (MFI) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PENN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PENN stock.

Keywords: PENN, Penn National Gaming, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

PENN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Penn National Gaming Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of PENN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Money Flow Index (MFI)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PENN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PENN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PENN Penn National Gaming
Time series to forecast n: 31 Aug 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PENN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Penn National Gaming assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Money Flow Index (MFI) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PENN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PENN stock.

Financial State Forecast for PENN Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Operational Risk	42	53
Market Risk	42	74
Technical Analysis	54	56
Fundamental Analysis	42	89
Risk Unsystematic	89	37

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 839 signals.

References

1. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
2. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
3. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
4. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
5. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
6. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
7. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PENN stock?
A: PENN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Money Flow Index (MFI) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is PENN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PENN Stock.
Q: Is Penn National Gaming stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Penn National Gaming is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PENN stock?
A: The consensus rating for PENN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PENN stock?
A: The prediction period for PENN is (n+1 year)