Machine Learning stock prediction: BSX Stock Prediction

Abstract

We evaluate Boston Scientific prediction models with Trend and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BSX stock.

Keywords: BSX, Boston Scientific, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
3. How do you pick a stock?

BSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Boston Scientific Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Trend) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BSX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BSX Boston Scientific
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Boston Scientific assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Trend with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for BSX Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	B1
Operational Risk	87	75
Market Risk	45	38
Technical Analysis	87	45
Fundamental Analysis	77	54
Risk Unsystematic	83	76

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 665 signals.

References

1. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
2. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
3. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
4. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
5. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
6. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
7. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BSX stock?
A: BSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Trend and Logistic Regression
Q: Is BSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BSX Stock.
Q: Is Boston Scientific stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Boston Scientific is Buy and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for BSX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BSX stock?
A: The prediction period for BSX is (n+1 year)