How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (SMI Index Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate SMI Index prediction models with Running Moving Average (RMA) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

Keywords: SMI Index, SMI Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Short/Long Term Stocks
2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
3. How do you pick a stock?

SMI Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SMI Index Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of SMI Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Running Moving Average (RMA)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SMI Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SMI Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SMI Index SMI Index
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

SMI Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Running Moving Average (RMA) with Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for SMI Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Operational Risk	77	51
Market Risk	50	52
Technical Analysis	76	74
Fundamental Analysis	38	65
Risk Unsystematic	46	80

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 696 signals.

References

1. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
2. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
3. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
4. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
5. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
6. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
7. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SMI Index stock?
A: SMI Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Running Moving Average (RMA) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is SMI Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index Stock.
Q: Is SMI Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SMI Index is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SMI Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for SMI Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SMI Index stock?
A: The prediction period for SMI Index is (n+16 weeks)